Public evidence
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Executive summary
Odds that a proposed billionaire tax appears on California ballots plunge on prediction markets. Odds that a proposed billionaire tax appears on California ballots plunge on prediction markets. Chances that a proposed billionaire tax will appear on California's ballot dropped from 88% to 35.5% over the past week on prediction markets platform Kalshi. Over the past week, chances that the California billionaire tax will appear on November's ballot dropped from 88% to 35.5% on prediction markets platform Kalshi.
Private application
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The public brief explains the signal. The Release Readiness Memo tests whether that signal changes one family decision before capital, control, or reputation is committed.
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